US Dollar Lacks Buying Strength as Key Fibonacci Levels Give Way

The past sessions brought exactly what we’ve been waiting for: follow-through, level-to-level movement and in some cases… clean execution of previously outlined scenarios. In other words - this wasn’t a guessing game - this was structure playing out. And today, instead of chasing new ideas… we focus on what the market is doing right now at key decision points.

The U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
 

We’ll begin today with a quote from April 9: 

“(…) Nevertheless, we can’t ignore the bigger picture.  

A daily close below the rising channel has already activated a broader bearish scenario - one that suggests a potential move toward 98.00, where the measured move aligns with the height of the channel and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. And this scenario becomes even more likely if bulls lose control of the March 24 gap. (…)” 

Looking at the chart today, we can clearly see that the bearish scenario we outlined last week has played out with the price reaching our downside target. 

However, what happened before is telling even more…

Despite a strong bullish gap at the yesterday’s open, buyers failed to hold control. By the end of the session, not only the gap was filled but additional support layers were lost: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the March 3rd pro bullish gap. 

That was a clear sign of weakness, which pushed the dollar lower into the next support zone created by the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the green gap from March 2nd (the above-mentioned downside target) earlier today. 

At first glance, this area may look supportive, however, here’s the problem - a very similar structure failed just yesterday! Therefore, with no confirmed buy signals on daily indicators, the burden of proof is still on the bulls. 

Outlook

• Bearish scenario: a breakdown below the current support zone opens the door toward: 97.23 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) / 96.82-97.00 (February 17 gap)
• Bullish scenario: a daily close above 97.77 would stabilize the situation and open the door for a move toward the April 8 bearish gap 
  Key takeaway: this is a decision zone - no need to guess – just wait for the close.

Having said that, now let’s talk about what was actually delivered…

Copper (HG.F) : Highlight of the Day

Before diving in, let’s revisit the quote from April 1st: 

“(…) Right above current levels sits the upper boundary of a declining wedge, and that’s the real test. 

Why? 

Because breaking out of this wedge wouldn’t just confirm continuation - it could open the door toward a much larger move, potentially even toward the 78.6% retracement of the entire decline or higher (depending on the breakout point). 

Today’s session adds another piece to the puzzle. 

Price pulled back slightly and is now testing the upper boundary of the consolidation that was broken yesterday and this is exactly what you want to see. 

(…) The breakout above consolidation is a positive signal but the real test is still ahead. As long as price remains above 558 = breakout remains valid, upside toward ~595 in play. (…)”

Looking at the daily chart, we see that the breakout we discussed played out, and bulls reached our first upside target. That’s exactly how structured trading should look.

What happened? 

• initial hesitation
• consolidation near resistance
• breakout → acceleration

 Today’s Takeaway 

Let’s keep this simple and actionable… 

Dollar: wait for confirmation and do not trade without a daily close signal.

Final Thought: this is one of those moments where the market already did the hard work. Now your job is to react correctly. 

Stay patient, stay selective and let the market confirm before you commit.