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Silver looks like it’s trying to base, but it keeps running into the same wall. The downtrend break shifts the tone, yet repeated failures keeps downside risk alive.
Silver has been hanging tough over the past week in what’s been a tricky macro environment for risk assets, managing to hold above the low struck on March 23. The bounce from that support zone, comprising the April 2025 uptrend and the February 6 low of $64.10, is starting to look like a base has formed, a view enhanced by the break of the late January downtrend seen on Tuesday.
However, while that helps build confidence that the bearish structure is weakening, especially with the price managing to print a marginal higher high today, it’s obvious the bulls face a high hurdle near-term: the 100DMA. We’ve seen multiple failures at this level recently, including last week, with the price now wedged beneath it again.
Source: TradingView
Its proximity presents a decent entry point for trades depending on how the price interacts with it. A sustained break above the level would allow for longs to be set with a tight stop beneath for protection. Alternatively, continued failures to reclaim it would allow for shorts to be set with a stop above.
Levels overhead to consider for longs include $78, which has acted as both support and resistance this year, along with the 50DMA, the March 10 high of $90.50, and resistance at $96. On the downside, $72 capped gains over the past week prior to the latest breakout, so it needs to be on the radar, with $68 another level where bulls were active over the second half of March. With the August 2025 uptrend and horizontal support at $64.10 not far below, that zone looks an attractive target area for shorts or an entry level for longs.
Like the price action, the message from the oscillators is that bears are losing their grip. RSI (14) has been trending higher and is nearing the neutral 50 level, while MACD has crossed above the signal line from below, albeit still in negative territory. The combined take is that downside momentum is fading, leaving risks more evenly balanced.