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Brent crude is seen averaging $85 per barrel this year, and West Texas Intermediate could see an average price of $79, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said in a note released Sunday. They added that the supply loss from the crisis is going to peak at 17 million barrels daily.
The price update is from an earlier outlook of $77 on average per barrel of Brent crude and $72 on average per barrel of WTI.
At the time of writing, the international benchmark was trading at $112.69 per barrel, with the U.S. benchmark at $99.60 per barrel, both up from Friday’s close as the deadline for the ultimatum that President Donald Trump gave the Iranian leadership draws near.
Trump issued the ultimatum on Saturday, urging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours of his TruthSocial post or face the “obliteration” of its power plants by U.S. forces. In response, Iran said it would target the energy and water desalination infrastructure of U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf and Israel.
Goldman assumed the disruption in tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will last six weeks, and then shipments of crude from the Gulf will gradually recover within a month, pushing oil prices down. Iran effectively closed the Strait in the days following the joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on its leadership, cutting off 20% of global oil flows almost completely. Not everyone is as optimistic as Goldman analysts, with some observers suggesting the disruption could last for months even if the bombings stop.
“The largest oil supply shock ever will likely lead policymakers and markets to recognize the structural risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity in the Middle East and from the vulnerability of energy infrastructure,” the Goldman commodity team wrote in its note.