Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
Upon evaluating gold futures across multiple time frames, I observed that last week’s closing formations on the 1-hour chart closely mirrored the patterns seen throughout the week, indicating a repetition of market behaviour.
Undoubtedly, the long-term outlook remains dictated by the duration of hostilities, which will define the magnitude of energy-driven inflation ahead as the U.S. military engagement continues.
The Trump administration has issued a temporary 30-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil "at sea." This move is designed to inject about 140 million barrels of crude into a global market already affected by the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Tehran. The decision shows White House concerns about soaring energy costs above $100 a barrel.
I observed that the administration is framing the move as a way to "use Iranian barrels against Tehran," increasing global supply while attempting to restrict Iran’s access to the resulting revenue.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized the manoeuvre as a strategic pivot, aiming to utilize existing Iranian supplies as a "buffer" to protect U.S. consumers and businesses ahead of the high-stakes November midterm elections.
This series of pragmatic retreats highlights the severity of the current supply crunch, which is exacerbated by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Upon correlating these developments with gold futures movements since the beginning of this month, I find that gold futures have maintained a slide at a 50-degree angle of depression since testing the second peak on March 2, 2026, at $5,435.42, up to March 18, 2026.
This decline became even steeper on March 18, 2026, with prices dropping at an 85-degree angle, indicating that the decline was almost vertical. This sharp drop could push futures to test lows at $4,070.21 on March 24, 2024.
To understand this technical slide on a daily chart, the need of the hour is to focus on the closing formations on weekly closes on a 1-Hr. chart – especially of the week ended on March 13. 2026, where a formation of “Bearish Doji” was formed at the closing, resulting in a rangebound movement by the gold futures between $4,978.10 - $4,065.48, from March 15 to March 18, 2026, before the advent of a breakdown at 7:00 on March 18.
Once again, the same technical formations appeared at the closing of this week before closing on March 20, 2026, ensuring the repetition of the range-bound moves for the first three days, followed by a slide of approximately 9.58% on March 23-25, 2026.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.