Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
On Saturday, senior US, Iranian, and Pakistani officials were holding trilateral ceasefire talks in Islamabad as violence continues across the region.
Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are leading the Iranian delegation, while Washington is represented by Vice President JD Vance, along with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Simultaneously, the situation on the ground remains volatile as discussions continue in Islamabad.
On Sunday, US Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad after talks with Iran ended without a deal, saying he has put forward a “final and best offer”.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry says that the two sides have agreed on a number of points, and it is natural that no agreement was reached in a day.
Now, it seems that it was impossible. Both left essentially blaming the other for their failure.
The key question - what happens next?
The ceasefire - agreed on Wednesday - began amidst apocalyptic threats from the US President, saying he would destroy Iranian civilisation.
There was no announcement on whether attacks on Iran will resume, but certainly the chances have increased.
As for the Strait of Hormuz - the vital waterway Iran had selectively, but effectively, blocked - a reopening through negotiations seems off the table. The arrival of two US warships in the Gulf suggests that the US sees another route.
The US cited Iran’s failure to commit to never having a nuclear weapon as the key stumbling block. Iran has always denied wanting the ultimate deterrent, but two wars in the space of a year will have emboldened those calling for it.
I find that such a scenario would elevate oil prices, as well as inflationary fears among investors, and it could result in panic selling in equity and commodity markets.
On Monday, oil futures are likely to start the week with a gap-up, while precious metals will open with a gap-down as diplomatic failure could have a disastrous impact on the global economy.
Undoubtedly, this tension could surge to extreme levels, resulting in a devastating impact on the economies of the countries that are not even part of this tussle.
US Gold Futures Multi-Time Frame Analysis
Weekly Chart
Gold futures rebounded from March lows but now face resistance at the 9 DMA ($4,903), closing the week at $4,787.4, near immediate support at the 20 DMA ($4,751.6). A breakdown here could lead to a test of the $4,100 support level.
A sustained move below this support may keep gold in a bearish trend if geopolitical tensions persist.
Daily Chart
In a daily chart, the appearance of an indecisive candle on last Friday indicates a steep fall awaits here, as the gold futures formed the same daily candle on March 16 and 17, followed by a steep fall in the gold futures that pushed the futures to test the lows at $4,100 within the next four trading sessions.
I find that the probabilities of a deep exhaustion seem evident due to high crude oil prices at this time, while crude oil futures were at the same levels on March 26, 2026.
Hourly Chart
In an hourly chart, gold futures have been facing significant resistance at $4,827 since April 8, signalling the advent of a steep slide soon, as trading below 20 DMA with a bearish note last Friday.
I find that a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,650 could accelerate the slide.
Conclusion: I find that the currently prevailing scenario seems evident enough to keep the tension continuing for a long time, between the two nations, as one has only one aim to suppress the other for handing over every single drop of its oil and 400 Kg. Uranium, while the other is ready to pay any cost to defend its sovereignty.
Now, the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a lethal weapon, even more than a nuclear bomb, that Iran can use to force the U.S. to defend its economy from the disastrous impact of the closure of the Strait, if it extends for some more time.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.