Gold Holds Weekly Gains but Selling Pressure Keeps Market Cautious

On evaluating the movements of the gold futures on different time pattern charts, I find the gold futures look indecisive before this week’s closing, while ready to close the week despite experiencing weekly gains of approximately 5.67%, after testing this week’s low at $4,616 while trading with gains of approximately 3.28% only now.

Undoubtedly, the selling pressure remains high, as Iran has denied media reports that a negotiating delegation has arrived in Islamabad for talks with the United States, according to local media reports on Friday.

The report added that talks would remain suspended as long as Washington does not uphold commitments related to a ceasefire in Lebanon and Israeli attacks continue.

The denial comes a day after Iran and the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7, following mediation led by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in what had been seen as a diplomatic breakthrough after weeks of conflict.

Islamabad said on April 8 that the truce would apply broadly, including Lebanon, and had invited both sides for further negotiations scheduled for April 10.

However, continued hostilities, particularly Israeli strikes in Lebanon, have raised concerns about the durability of the ceasefire, as the Israeli Prime Minister has been consistently trying to disrupt efforts since the beginning of this war.

I observed that President Trump’s silence on Israel’s disruption attempts elevates skepticism over the sustainability of a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Undoubtedly, such a scenario has extended indecisiveness among the investors, which limits the upside for gold futures at $4,827.36 since the beginning of this month.

I find that if the current de-escalation efforts fail, surging inflationary fear could experience a long-term devastating impact on the global economy, as the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a disastrous arm, even more powerful than a nuclear bomb, having its disastrous impact on the whole world if it remains shut for some time due to prevailing tension between the U.S. and Iran.

Undoubtedly, the lives of millions of people across the Middle East – and the fate of the global economy – hang in the balance on the outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran this weekend in Pakistan.

A fragile two-week ceasefire that paved the way for the talks is holding now. But Israel’s massive, deadly bombardment of Hezbollah and disagreements over whether Lebanon is included in the truce could still derail the meetings.

I conclude that the gold futures could overreact on Monday over the developments this weekend, as the U.S. President, who is habitually changing his stances on Iran, especially on weekends, and his words jolt the markets, particularly on Mondays, followed by a reversal of his decisions on Tuesdays or Wednesdays.

Now, a key question is whether the talks will produce some sort of middle ground – or whether they will collapse and restart a war that has already wrought destruction across parts of the Middle East and sparked a historic oil crisis.

Currently, gold futures are facing a significant resistance at the 50 EMA ($4,793) in a daily chart, while trying to defend the immediate support at the 20 EMA ($4,748), and the 9 EMA ($4,724), where a breakdown is possible in today’s session as both the 9 EMA and 20 EMA are currently below the 50 EMA, have already formed a “Bearish Crossover” since March 24, 2026.

In the weekly chart, after find a strong reversal from $4,127.26, tested on March 23, gold futures have tested a recent high at $4,888, on April 8, gold futures are trading at $4,775, facing significant resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,786) while trying to defend the immediate support at the 20 EMA ($4,638) where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($4,138) next week.

On the other hand, WTI crude oil futures are trying to hold the immediate support at $98 while facing significant resistance at the 20 DMA ($99.54), where a breakout could push the futures to test the next resistance at the 9 DMA ($104.72) in a daily chart.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and crude oil at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.