Gold Futures Struggle to Break Higher as Weakness Builds Across Time Frames

Analysis of gold futures across multiple time frames this week indicates that, despite a steep decline on Monday and subsequent reversal, the narrow trading range does not support a sustained bullish outlook. Persistent doubts regarding the de-escalation of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran continue to exert bearish pressure.

President Trump on Monday postponed a threat to bomb Iran’s electricity grid, citing “very good and productive” talks with unidentified Iranian officials.

On Monday, gold futures, which had tested the day’s low at $4,128.10, experienced a strong reversal after Trump’s comment on Truth Social, with Iran stating that no talks had yet been held.

However, Iran’s Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, stated on social media that no such talks had taken place, creating uncertainty.

Washington’s decision against Iran helped calm broader markets and triggered a sharp pullback in oil prices, allowing gold to trim some losses in the previous session.

Gold futures extended losses for the tenth straight session in Asian trading on Tuesday as Iran denied holding talks with the U.S. after President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone further strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Iran launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel, the Israeli military said on Tuesday, highlighting no signs of de-escalation.

Gold futures extended losses on Tuesday as investors also continued to focus on the macroeconomic outlook, particularly interest rate expectations.

Undoubtedly, precious metals have come under sustained pressure in recent sessions as a surge in energy prices heightened concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

This has led markets to scale back expectations for monetary easing, with investors increasingly betting that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will keep interest rates higher for longer.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to Trump less than 48 hours before the war began. He was expected to convene a security meeting to discuss Trump’s bid for a deal with Iran, according to two senior Israeli officials.

Technical Levels to Watch

In a weekly chart, gold futures, after opening the week at $4,495, tested a high at $4,569.70, and a low at $4,128.50, are trading at $4,470.10, indicating indecisiveness as trading below the immediate resistance at $4,557.52, and just above the immediate support at $4,398.54 where a breakdown could trigger selling spree to test the next significant support at the 50 EMA ($4,089.51).

In a daily chart, gold futures, after opening the day at $4,475.35, tested the day’s high at $4,480.71, and day’s low at $4,340, are trading at $4,445, indicating extreme weakness as trading below the significant resistance at 100 EMA ($4,624) since the formation of a “Bearish Crossover” with a downward move by the 9 EMA ($4,741.20) below the 20 EMA ($4,898) while the 20 EMA is also trying to pierce 50 EMA in today’s session.

Undoubtedly, a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,346 could accelerate the slide, likely to push gold futures to test the significant support at the 200 EMA ($4,055.12).

In a 1-Hr. chart, despite a strong reversal on Monday, gold futures are consistently trying to enter the consolidation zone but remain unsuccessful till now, indicating the advent of a selling spree within the next few hours.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.