Gold Extends Decline as Bearish Momentum Builds Below Key Levels

On Thursday, gold futures opened at $4,528, reached a high of $4,573.87, and a low of $4,444.65, before trading at $4,482. This continued decline reflects ongoing selling pressure, coinciding with a surge of over 3% in crude oil futures. Investors are responding to conflicting signals regarding the Iran conflict, while a strong U.S. dollar further diminishes bullion’s appeal.

Iran’s foreign minister says the country is not currently negotiating with the US to end the war and "does not intend" to do so.

Abbas Araghchi’s comments came as US President Donald Trump’s press secretary stated that talks were "ongoing" and "productive." Araghchi said the US had been sending ideas via mediators - at one stage appearing to refer to a 15-point plan the US is reported to have passed to Iran.

Without explicitly rejecting the plan outright, the foreign minister repeated some of the arguments earlier outlined by an unnamed Iranian official in a five-point counter-proposal.

The war began on 28 February with US and Israeli air strikes, after which Iran widened hostilities by targeting American allies in the Gulf.

The war with Iran “is a catastrophe for the world’s economies,” Germany’s defense minister said.

“The impact is absolutely evident, already now after a little more than two weeks,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters during a visit to Australia, where he made it clear that Germany did not want to get involved in the war.

However, gains remained capped as uncertainty over the conflict persisted. Iran is still reviewing a U.S. proposal aimed at ending hostilities, with mixed signals on whether negotiations will progress.

While Iran has not formally accepted the plan, it has stopped short of outright rejection, raising cautious hopes of a potential path toward de-escalation.

Iran has publicly denied direct negotiations with Washington and indicated that key differences persist. The lack of clarity has kept traders on edge, with oil prices rising further on Thursday.

I observed that precious metal futures could shed gains achieved this week, as Washington has warned of stronger measures if Iran does not engage constructively.

Gold futures are showing extensive bearish pressure. As I discussed in my previous analysis on Wednesday, a sustainable move below the significant resistance at $4,557.52 (where resistance is a price level at which selling pressure tends to prevent prices from rising further) could push the futures to test the immediate support at $4,398.54 (support is a price level where buying pressure prevents prices from falling further).

A breakdown below the second support at $4,346.32 could accelerate this slide toward the next significant support at the 200 EMA ($4,07.92; the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, or EMA, is a technical indicator that smooths prices over 200 days to highlight trends) before this weekly close. Gold futures are already trading below the 100 EMA ($4,619; the 100-day Exponential Moving Average) on the daily chart.

Technical Levels to Watch

In a 1-hour chart, gold futures are holding below the normal trading range after a steep fall in today’s session and have consistently faced resistance at the 100 EMA ($4,560.75; Exponential Moving Average, which averages price data to indicate overall trend), which has now fallen below the 200 EMA ($4,675.71; a longer-term trend indicator).

The 50 EMA, 20 EMA, and 9 EMA (shorter-term EMAs representing averages over 50, 20, and 9 periods) have also dropped below the 100 EMA, forming a ’Bearish Crossover’—a term meaning that shorter-term moving averages crossing below longer-term ones signal further downside momentum. Gold futures are currently trading below the 9 EMA.

Undoubtedly, a breakdown below the immediate support at $4,399.31 could push the futures to test the next support at $4,320, where a breakdown could accelerate the selling spree in today’s session.

In a weekly chart, gold futures have consistently maintained an 80-degree slide since the beginning of this month, and this week’s candle is showing indecisiveness as after starting this week at $4,495, and testing week’s high at $4,634, and week’s low at $4,128.50, gold futures are trading at $4,461.

This weekly candle shows an extensive tug of war between the bulls and bears this week amid surging indecisiveness on the escalation or de-escalation of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.