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The global oil market could lose up to 14 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply if the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz extends for more weeks, according to Barclays.
A prolonged disruption at the world’s most vital oil chokepoint is set to lead to 13-14 million bpd of supply losses—an immense shock, the UK-based investment bank said in a note on Thursday, as reported by Reuters.
However, both the magnitude of the supply loss and the duration of the Hormuz closure are highly uncertain, Barclays analysts noted.
“Notwithstanding uncertainty about the ceasefire negotiations, in our base case, we expect traffic through the Strait to normalize by early April, which would be consistent with Brent averaging $85/b in 2026,” they wrote.
But if the blockage extends into the end of April, Brent Crude could reprice to $100 per barrel, and further up to $110 a barrel if the closure extends through May, according to Barclays.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs said that the supply losses from the Iran War could peak at about 17 million bpd, as it raised its 2026 average price forecasts for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate benchmarks.
Early on Thursday in Asian trade, Brent Crude prices were trading at $105 per barrel, up by 3%, after signals emerged that Iran may not be interested in holding talks on a ceasefire.
WTI Crude was also up 3% at $93 per barrel, as the U.S. benchmark continues to trade at a major discount to Brent amid the frantic search of Brent-linked crudes in Asia, where supply shortages are already being acutely felt.
By 20 March, supply disruptions in the Middle East reached 10.7 million bpd, according to Kpler’s estimates. These could rise to as much as 11.5 million bpd by late March and remain at that level throughout April if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve, Kpler’s analyst said, noting that short-term fixes to the supply loss, such as stocks release and sanctions relief “can only delay, not offset, the growing structural deficit.”